Douala, Cameroon Africa. January 2011 (Cameroon News) – Business Monitor International has just released their annual report on “Cameroon Oil and Gas Q1 2011″

The latest findings based on the new Cameroon Oil & Gas Report from BMI estimates that Cameroon will contribute to meeting 0.99% of oil demand in Africa by 2015, by supplying around 0.81% .

African needs around 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) as per statistics taken in 2001 and this number is estimated to increase to 3.81mn barrels per day by 2010.

The average increase in 2011 is estimated to be around3.90mn b/d in 2011 following which it will rise to 4.40mn b/d by 2015.

Local oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and is estimated to reach an average of 10.18mn b/d in 2010.

The regional oil production will rise from a forecasted 10.52mn b/d in 2011, to 12.08mn b/d by 2015.

Oil exports are increasing slowly, because increase in demand is relatively slow when compared to the increase in supply.

In 2001, Cameroon oil exports amounted to an average 4.87mn b/d. BMI and this is expected to increase to 6.36mn b/d in 2010 with a further rise to 7.68mn b/d by 2015.
In terms of natural gas, the regional demand is an estimated 123.4bcm in 2010, with a requirement of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015.

bowleven Cameroon Douala Oil gas explorer

An estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 will be produced and this is required to increase to 322.6bcm in 2015, which is indicative of the fact that net exports should climb from a forecasted 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015.

However it should be noted that Cameroon does not have any major contribution to either the local gas production or the demand.

BMI anticipates an increase of real GDP in Cameroon by 2.8% in 2010. An average annual growth of of 4.5% between the periods spanning 2010-2015 is also expected.

The oil demand is likely to increase from an approximate estimate of 34,000b/d in 2010 to 44,000b/d in 2015.

The government owned Oil Company, Societe Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) which works in a tie up with a small group of international oil companies (IOCs) in primarily in charge of dealing with the government’s part of oil production and has a 20% share in projects being carried out by Total, Pecten and Perenco.

Owing to the funding made by IOC, total oil and gas liquids production is around 67,000b/d in 2010 is estimated to reach around 98,000b/d in 2015.

Cameroon Limbe – Home to SONARA, Cameroon Oil Refinery

Gas output is forecasted to take a rapid increase over a longer time frame which in turn will offer a solid framework for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by around 2016.

Cameroon’s oil and gas liquids production will rise by 32.2%, between the period 2010- 2020 and the volumes will reach a high of an estimated 98,000b/d in 2015 before dipping down to 89,000b/d by the close of the decade.

Oil demand between 2010 and 2020 is expected to rise by 62.9%, with growth reducing to an approximate 5% per annum as the period comes to a close and the country using up around 56,000b/d by 2020.

Gas production is estimated to increase to 5.0bcm by the close of the period. With demand peaking by an approximated 85%, there is huge scope for net exports of 4.6bcm by 2020.

Cameroon falls in the lower half of BMI’s “composite Business Environment ratings (BER) table”, which takes into consideration both upstream and downstream scores. It has taken the 8th position, one rank above the Republic of Congo (RoC).

DeepSea Oil Rig – Bowleven Cameroon Gulf of Guinea Operates such Rig

The country this time ties the 7th position with Egypt in the updated upstream ratings, and is just one rank above of RoC.

The county’s score has improved owing to the above average gas production rise prospects, a pretty robust gas reserves to production ratio (RPR) and lucrative licensing mandates.

The country’s risk environment is dubious which is the case with most African economies is. Cameroon is close to the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, with not too many great scores and not much prospect fro growth.

It has secured the 8th place with Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, because of dismal scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, nominal GDP and the lack of competition in the downstream segment.

Oil and gas Plant